The absent superpower pdf download

Such landscapes not only make it rich and secure beyond peer, but also enable its navy to be SO powerful that America dominates the global oceans. If you want to understand the world better, read this book. Oct 25, Mike Hohrath rated it really liked it.

I came across an article by Peter Zeihan on why it was inevitable that the U. I was intrigued by his rational and intuitive explanation of this major event that was so pro-America and at the same time, an explanation and thought process I had not encountered in any political commentary.

I decided to buy his book on Audible and give it a listen. The central premise is that the development of shale as an energy source for America augmented by our natural geographical features that allow for some of the best shale extraction in the world coupled with populist politics means that the United States does not need to be involved in the Middle East oil market, or really anywhere in the world.

The post-Bretton Woods world that sees the United States enforcing global security and free trade among all countries is slowly falling apart. The system of economic globalism is at it's end according to Zeihan. As the United States becomes increasingly isolationist, regional power vacuums start to be filled similar to the world pre-WW1. In addition to these conflicts, he describes the energy supply and demand of all major powers and areas and how these drive political decisions.

Also he goes into the major 7 oil companies and how they impact political situations. Supply chains feature prominently and access to energy can be the difference between success and failure in this new world.

Wars will occur over access to energy sources and victory can be insured by starving a countries access to energy or by preventing the sale of it's energy. Some countries win and others lose as the energy market evolve to the new marketplace. The U. Military resources are deployed as means to secure energy, whether it's a navy convoying energy shipments or land based air forces dominating military conflicts and cutting off access to energy resources.

Another addition to the book besides energy situations is how the geography of countries impact economic and political power. Regional power centers created by access to ample farm land and defensive geography like the Mississippi River Basin or Rio de la Plata or North China plain are determinants of potential power. Other features, like rivers or mountains can be sources of advantage or absolutely devastating to a country's development and potential. Some countries are unable to overcome these natural obstacles.

This is an idea developed in the book 10 maps that explain the world. America remains one of the few countries to benefit from Zeihan's new world order.

Access to American Shale ensures American energy independence and flexibility. Regional power centers in the Northwest, Mississippi Basin, and East Coast ensure American dominance and total resource independence provides political and economic flexibility. Dollar diplomacy similar to late 's American policy reemerges as some South Eastern Asian and South American countries benefit but pay for American involved in economic investment but potentially heavy handed dealings.

American consumer economy continues to provide one of the only growth markets in the world, providing instant carrots for countries wishing to tap into our market, given at a cost. It's not clear if the world will really shift in this direction or how long it will take. The 70 year momentum of the existing world order is compelling but we have seen signs of his theory in the Russian annexation of eastern Ukraine and Crimea and now in the Americans pulling out of Syria.

His explanation is somewhat comforting. What he really describes is the end of America as the sole superpower and how by pulling back our power and involvement, we allow other power centers to emerge in a multi-polar world. This will involve growing pains as countries fight it out to resolve their position in the totem pole but could result in a more diversified, albeit nationalistic future.

His blog continues to push material supporting his theories. The world could someday unify under one world government, but in the meantime, with America pulling back, other regional power centers will emerge and maybe thats the next step forward in the history of Humanity, that is if we don't blow ourselves up getting there.

I really enjoy these real politik books. It's tough to know how much will happen as it's purely the theory of one man but it seems well thought out though I'm sure holes could be poked here and there. What will happen is chaotic and if anyone could predict the future they would make a killing in the stock market. I will be interested in seeing how events play out in my lifetime and how they match the descriptions posited here. The book will definitely influence my views on international relations and events though.

Very educational and enlightening. Not perfect, a little repetitive, but a must read for anyone to talk foreign policy and international business. Apr 19, Dan Goss rated it it was amazing. I don't agree with all the conclusions, but the perspective and insight was incredibly valuable. Apr 21, Ryan Ard rated it really liked it.

An entertaining, insightful, not-too-complicated read. Hopefully, for the world's sake, everything he predicts does not come to fruition. Jan 01, Josh rated it really liked it. Jul 22, Reinhardt rated it really liked it. Some fantastic information on shale production.

Details on how its found, drilled, extracted. The huge surge in shale production is close to miraculous. And the natural gas spin-off is a boon for US electricity production. By natural gas replacing coal in electricity generation, shale production has done much more to reduce greenhouse gases than all the wind and solar installations. Regardless of the Green Hype, oil is not going anywhere for a long time. The book also highlights the absolutely cr Some fantastic information on shale production.

The book also highlights the absolutely critical nature of oil and the associated natural gas. It has started wars in the past and Peter Zeihan predicts future wars triggered by oil. Oil is more important than food.

Without oil, no food is harvested or transported to hungry people. And of course, without oil, militaries are relegated to civil war status with horses and buggy. Oil is the single most important commodity in the globe. Interlinked with shale oil is America's place as the worlds de facto policeman. The current global status is Pax Americana. It is US military presence that keeps global trade lines open.

With US becoming energy independent, Americans will become less and less willing to pay for global security. Of course, Americans benefit from global security, but as the US is much less dependent on export to drive its economy, safe passage on oceans is a lower priority than it is for major exporting counties like China.

Once the US pulls back from securing the world's oceans, Zeihan predicts wars are inevitable in Asia and Russia. He plays our extensive scenarios on how these would play out. Almost certainly, they won't play out in that way, but it's a useful exercise to game out a plausible outline. Particularly with Russia, it seems clear they want to extend their sphere of influence to Ukraine, Byelorussia and the Baltics. The author suggests this will trigger the Europeans to go to war with the Russians.

I find that hard to believe. European armies are woefully inept and the populations are so averse to military action they make Chamberlain look like a crazed warmonger.

It seems more likey the Germans will acquiesce to whatever the Russians demand. The book also highlights the unique geographical advantages of the US.

Abundant fertile land, navigable rivers, huge ocean buffers that provide impenetrable barriers against military invasion, and of course huge oil deposits. Demographics are another factor. US has better demographics that the Chinese, Japanese or Eurpoean.

They factor will maintain the US hegemonic postion. All these factors contribute to America's inward turn. If Peter is right that no matter the politics of the White House, Americans will withdraw from the world as it has before , then the current global Pax American will fade into regional conflicts with the biggest losers being China and Africa.

Another factor this book highlights the abundant cash the Saudi's are sitting on. They can last decades with deficits to subside their populus and undermining Iran - their arch enemy.

This book helps explain some of the recent Saudi muscle-flexing, against enemies foreign and domestic. And the Saudi price war is targetted more at the Iranians than anyone else. Overall, a lot of great information in this book, but its a bit too long and too long on hypothetical. I think a better focus would have been on the history, which is inevitably repeated.

Sep 20, George Siehl rated it it was amazing Shelves: geography , trends , owned , economics , sociology , geopolitics , government , technology , strategy , business.

As the list of shelves shows, this geopolitical tour-de-force literally makes major connections with quite a few subjects. Author Peter Zeihan builds from two emerging American trends: domestic oil shale providing the United States with energy independence, and the growing isolationist attitude of Americans.

He overlays on this the changing world demographics that in many countries shows a drop in the size of the younger generation. This is the generation that usually works, purchases, and pro As the list of shelves shows, this geopolitical tour-de-force literally makes major connections with quite a few subjects. This is the generation that usually works, purchases, and provides support for the older population's social security.

The United States is one of the few countries having a large young generation. Another overlay is the growing fractiousness of other nations and their inclination to cross borders to acquire new territory, e.

His detailed assessments of country after country provides the basis for his thesis that conflict would disrupt energy supplies and, in turn, have devastating impacts on national economies as the conflicts escalate and energy distribution is reshuffled around the globe.

Bad news for the world, but for the isolationist, energy independent USA, he details a different future. His scenarios include three separate wars that may or may not interact. The reader is whisked along, fascinated, but remembering that military leaders plan with the expectation that the plan is good until the first bullet is fired.

Readers may also have thoughts, " What about this? Nonetheless, it is a fascinating trip, as it should be, since our guide is the former vice-president for analysis for Stratfor, a noted private intelligence firm, and now heads his own geopolitical consulting company. A former student suggested the author, and my continuing interest in geopolitics and natural resources made this an easy choice. Apart from the combat tours, the book serves as a primer on oil shale specifically and fossil fuels generally.

He addresses the opposition to fracking, the recovery method for oil from shale, but details the rapidly improving technology for recovery that eliminates or reduces many of the early concerns. The technology has also made the product cheaper and competitive with even Mideast oil. He also details the many shortcomings with green energy sources at this time, pointing out the financial and technological problems facing those alternatives.

The scale of their contribution versus the need for energy leaves a giant gap for the time being, Zeihan explains. The narrative is accompanied by maps, diagrams, data tables, and graphs, so the content is not science fiction. I recommend the book for general readers with an interest in world affairs, and for more specialized interests covering geopolitics, resources, economics, and hostile international relations.

Fanciers of supply chain discussions will find their interest served, as well. Oil Plays and Dollar Diplomacy: The Sweet Mix or Crude Power Energy and Water are two of the most essential struggles, after food and shelter, and two of the most world-changing factors of history. The Absent Superpower is not a commentary, as the title might make it appear with the use of the word 'absent.

It is the 'product' of a geopolitical strategist, who looks at current demographics and political trends to predict future world ev Oil Plays and Dollar Diplomacy: The Sweet Mix or Crude Power Energy and Water are two of the most essential struggles, after food and shelter, and two of the most world-changing factors of history.

It is the 'product' of a geopolitical strategist, who looks at current demographics and political trends to predict future world events. It is simple geography and common sense problem-solving interposed on those stats and demographics to arrive at what the day after tomorrow may bring. Of course, the purpose of all that is to provide political planners with facts to make future decisions.

Peter Zeihan begins with a breakdown, or recap of the current state of affairs in shale tech, and moves into why the US is particularly situated to take advantage of this energy revolution as it has done, extending the life of our oil supplies unlike most other countries. In doing so, he makes sense of the current behavior of different nations, revealing surprising statistics along the way, like the aging population of the rest of the world, while the US has a robust Millennial Generation.

His take is that while our turn to shale has came a long way toward making us energy independent, it will also tend to contribute to our disengaging from the business of militarily defending world trade, since we won't need oil outside our hemisphere. The book was actually written 5 years ago, and we can see this playing out already today.

And, Trump's election was the early sign even then of America's disengagement and oil independence. I will resist the urge to share quotes. If you are interested in understanding political and current events, infrastructure development and supply chains worldwide, and the way things are playing out around us; then this book is highly to be recommended. The real shortcoming, if there is one, to the work is that the author predicts coming wars of almost Biblical proportions, and yet thinks the US can back-step those problems after half the globe falls apart.

I guess what I am saying is that the distance he analyzes is limited to a relatively close time period. Then there is the fact that there is no place for the unknown. This looks straightforwardly at the world as it is when predicting where it will be in the future. I read the Kindle whisper-sync, which was perfect for this book.

I have had it on my bookshelf for several months and was glad to get into it. It is not a difficult read, though the author's sense of humor didn't seem funny to me.

Maybe I just didn't get his humor, or I prefer a more serious look at history and current events. But, the book provides a wealth of information: geographic, historic and political.

Jun 02, Roman Schuster rated it really liked it. Another thought provoking book about the intersection of energy flows and geopolitics. Without question the most informative part of the book Another thought provoking book about the intersection of energy flows and geopolitics. Without question the most informative part of the book, it provided enough evidence to convince me that the pros of shale outweigh the cons.

The second part was largely an overview of the three major military conflicts that the author views as most likely to occur within the next decade or two, and a guesstimate of what the impact of these wars would be on global flows of crude oil and natural gas. While some of the ideas explored here were first introduced in his previous book, I appreciate that the overlap was kept to an essential minimum.

Obviously nobody can predict the future, but the overview of major players in the war and their relative strengths and weaknesses i. Iran having hundreds of old war planes that are difficult or impossible to service vs Saudi Arabia having dozens of state-of-the-art fighter jets that they have to hire Pakistani airforce pilots to operate was valuable in itself. The one criticism I have here is his insistence that if the American-guaranteed free trade system collapses, the end goal of every nation will returning to as close a semblance of that system as possible.

People adapt and strategies change. For example he insists that the main goal of the Chinese government in Beijing is social pacification achieved through full employment. If Chinese exports crater, would it not be easier and more logical for Beijing to simply invade and occupy the southern coastal cities rather than fight a protracted naval war against a dozen countries over 5, nautical miles in order to secure access to persian gulf oil to power the industry that employees the citizens of the southern coastal cities?

Again very interesting material - the man clearly knows about oil and corporate politics. Nov 21, Michael Philliber rated it it was amazing. For a hardback packed with details about geology, oil production, politics, and history, it is amazingly an engaging read! My wife, who read the book, agrees! The main focus in the book is oil production, In "The Absent Superpower" Peter Zeihan, geopolitical strategist, speaker and author, picks up where he left off in "The Accidental Superpower.

The main focus in the book is oil production, and specifically shale. Zeihan's premise is that the shale revolution has made the U. Couple that with the end of the Cold War, and the rise of isolationism evidenced in the Presidential election , then it is highly likely the America will pull back from the larger world allowing things to go to pot.

The lion's share of the book is the author's answer to that question. The first explains the history, how and headway of shale petroleum production in four chapters. Then Zeihan describes, through six chapters, what he sees as the coming world disorder, its three major wars, who may sink and who might survive.

Finally, the author takes three chapters and a conclusion to draw out the ways America will, and will not, engage with the global system, and will not be absent in one area: Latin America.

As an added bonus Zeihan has three appendices, with "Shale and the Changing Face of Climate Change" being worth the time to read and ponder, no matter where you come out on the subject. If you enjoyed the first volume, you will find the second an essential addition. Folks who work in the oil patch will also gain much from the manuscript's bigger picture, and how their work in the energy industry fits into the landscape.

I highly recommend the book! My thanks to Peter Zeihan and Peter Zeihan on Geopolitics for sending, at my request, the volume used for this review. Neither the author nor the publisher made any demands. All thoughts in this review are mine, freely arrived at and freely bestowed. Jan 17, Brian rated it liked it. However, the similarities between the two are just too similar. However, they overlap a lot, too much in my opinion. In fact, I imagine a large portion of the people who read this including me are incredibly interested in politics and foreign policy but lack technical expertise in energy politics.

In this respect, Zeihan is incredibly valuable. An interesting and incredibly important take in my opinion. This is still a largely fun read although less entertaining than the Accidental Superpower in my opinion.

There is no theory. He evaluates each conflict through mini case studies and just lists reasons he thinks country X will or will not go to war with country Y. A lot of his claims are interesting but there is certainly no overarching method to it.

This realization constantly made me wonder while I was reading this if I was reading geopolitical forecasting or geopolitical fan-fiction. The first part of this book is about shale - what it is, how it works and what the history is. It's written in a somewhat technical but still easy to understand way, is mostly neutral but is definitely on the positive side of the technology and its benefits the Appendix covers the negatives and counters to them. This is interesting, but not revolutionary.

What it does do is set up the rest of the book. The first chapter of the second part is an amazingly concise yet comprehensive discussion and The first part of this book is about shale - what it is, how it works and what the history is. The first chapter of the second part is an amazingly concise yet comprehensive discussion and analysis of modern history leading into the geo-strategic position of all the major countries as of If you read nothing else, this chapter is worth the full 5 stars.

It's a great explanation of why we are where we are as of , when the book was written. Regardless of how much you buy into the predictions, the narrative is compelling reading and helps understand some of the more unusual aspects of activity by certain countries e. As the chapters progressed, I found they become more and more premised on earlier assumptions which if a few key things fail to materialise, a good half of the book is wrong.

The author says this is not supposed to be a detailed prediction, but does make some very detailed predictions. In that sense, I found it to be somewhat incredible. Nonetheless, it is an important thought experiment and is based in a good degree of fact regarding state positions both public, and what they are doing. Certain things the author predicted e. Despite not believing most of the predictions, I still found this a compelling "what if" discussion that really highlights how our entire global stability is built on oil.

That is not a good place to be. Feb 26, Ryan rated it really liked it Shelves: geopolitics , economics , nonfiction. Very interesting discussions about the recent history of energy, geopolitics, and demographics - and how those translate into the future. It will be a lot of fun going forward to see which predictions hold up and which don't.

The author manages to discuss recent oil resource trends around the world in a way that is heavy with data and diagrams, but also accessible to people that haven't followed the specifics of the shale oil revolution. The author then projects this into the future, and makes a b Very interesting discussions about the recent history of energy, geopolitics, and demographics - and how those translate into the future.

The author then projects this into the future, and makes a bunch of predictions about the behaviour of nations military, trade going forward. Not saying he's necessarily wrong, but I don't think it's a near guarantee that the US basically withdraws its Navy and stops caring about the strait of Taiwan as presented in this book regardless of whether there's trade interests involved for the US - there's other historical and cultural reasons the US might choose to care anyway and if the US is so rich from being independent, what's the real cost of simply keeping a couple aircraft carriers parked nearby?

But all in all, I very highly recommend this book as long as the reader understands that the "future history" parts have quite a bit of speculation mixed in, mainly because the discussion of US shale oil is extremely thorough and accessible. Feb 25, Aleks rated it really liked it. A really good read for people interested in geopolitics and what the future may hold.

The book is well grounded in research and numbers. It is not absurd and does not make wild exaggerations. Compared to something "The Next Years" by George Friedman this book is more serious and educational. However I also found it entertaining. The writer has a relatable writing style and is capable of explaining fracking and shale without dumbing it down. The book is not just science, it only provides the re A really good read for people interested in geopolitics and what the future may hold.

The book is not just science, it only provides the reader with a solid understanding of the energy industry and it builds off of that with predictions. It predicts economical and political changes in the world but also war.

The writer's style can be a little glib and pretentious once in a while. I think if you've seen Peter Zeihan's talks on YouTube he definitely gives off that vibe. Mixing in snarky comments in the footnotes doesn't really do the book justice and I think it would have been better off without it. One thing this book largely ignores to its discredit are the positives of open trade for America.

I think the idea that America subsidizes world security for oil only is an incomplete understanding. America is a consumer society built on cheap goods. There are plenty of reasons to keep shipping lanes open beyond oil. Overall I came away from this book with a much larger understanding of energy.

It also left me with a lot of questions like all good books do. I would recommend this book to anyone interested in geopolitics or how energy will shape the future.

This book is very clear on what the revolving factors that facilitate the absence of human superpower a human influence. This book mentioned a number accounts that suggest that the Superpower is not individual persons human beings , but material and product possession - petroleum, production machinery, currency facilitating value system, medicine, food, etc. The second pronouncement of this books focused on allusive theory. The allusive theory referenced probable consequences that are highly detrimental and destructive to society, which is revolved around the reality when the current system of superpower becomes a lethal Karma.

Finally, the author takes three chapters and a conclusion to draw out the ways America will, and will not, engage with the global system, and will not be absent in one area: Latin America. As an added bonus Zeihan has three appendices, with "Shale and the Changing Face of Climate Change" being worth the time to read and ponder, no matter where you come out on the subject.

If you enjoyed the first volume, you will find the second an essential addition. Folks who work in the oil patch will also gain much from the manuscript's bigger picture, and how their work in the energy industry fits into the landscape. I highly recommend the book! My thanks to Peter Zeihan and Peter Zeihan on Geopolitics for sending, at my request, the volume used for this review. Neither the author nor the publisher made any demands.

All thoughts in this review are mine, freely arrived at and freely bestowed. Related Papers. By Jeremy Garlick. By Sara B Pritchard. Building a Brighter Future. By Lauren F Turek. By Diego Pagliarulo. By Manu Bhagavan. Download file. Log in with Facebook Log in with Google. Remember me on this computer. Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link.